The Government’s Bitcoin Isn’t Immune to Tariffs

I’m fixated by this narrative that crypto is “tariff immune.” If you’ve been watching the markets this past week, you know that isn’t really the case. But still, many in the community persist with the idea that, sure, the markets might dip, but they won’t be fundamentally affected the same way as traditional markets. 

That might be somewhat true. It’s called “decoupling” — the crypto markets might fall, but not at the same rate as traditional markets, or so the thinking goes. 

It’s also part of the argument behind a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Such a reserve is “strategic” because it will continue to grow, or at least maintain its price, when other assets shrink. Most of its proponents point out that it would be a stable investment against inflation, but the concept theoretically applies here, too. 

Using estimates of how much crypto the government has in its reserve and digital asset stockpile, we can begin to fact-check that argument. 

Value of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plunges Due to Trump’s Tariffs

Also, the value of the Trump family’s holdings in World Liberty Financial has plummeted.

The value of the government’s bitcoin holdings has fallen 13% since President Trump ordered the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin reserve last month, largely due to the economic impacts of a rapidly escalating trade war. Trump threatened to issue another 50% in tariffs on China Monday, after levying a baseline 10% tariff on all U.S. imports Saturday and announcing higher tariffs on several countries set to go into effect Wednesday. 

Federal departments were ordered to issue a report on the number of bitcoin and other digital assets they hold to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Monday in Trump’s May executive order announcing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. However, the language did not require this report to be made public, a White House spokesperson pointed out. Unchained was unable to confirm whether the Treasury had received such reports.

However, Arkham Intelligence estimates the U.S. Government holds just under $15.9 billion in cryptocurrency, $15.6 billion of which is held in bitcoin (198,000 BTC). The U.S. government also holds significant amounts of tether, ether, and wrapped bitcoin. Most of these tokens have been obtained via digital asset forfeitures and seizures. (In fact, 112,000 BTC will likely go to Bitfinex and/or other claimants from the 2016 hack of the exchange.)

The tariffs have triggered a selloff in traditional and crypto markets, despite the president’s claims that tariffs will strengthen the U.S. economy long term. Global stock markets have crashed since the announcement of tariffs, with the S&P 500 alone seeing a 20% decline over the weekend. It dropped 0.8% off Trump’s proposed additional 50% tariff on China Monday. 

Digital assets, however, have also lowered on the tariff announcements, with the total crypto market cap down 15% between Trump’s so-called “liberation day” tariff announcement last Wednesday and publication. The relatively smaller fall, however, may be proof of “decoupling” — the idea that cryptocurrency may increase or decrease directionally in line with traditional markets, but with different proportions. This decoupling supports arguments in favor of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve that say it would support the U.S. economy against forces like inflation. 

Many of these same advocates have argued that cryptocurrency is immune to tariffs, due to the fact that it is not as reliant on physical imports and exports. But while crypto prices are decoupling from stock market valuations, they have still tumbled. 

The price downturn has also affected the treasuries of World Liberty Financial, a project majority owned by the Trump family. World Liberty Financial (WLFI) holds 163 wrapped bitcoin and over 7,900 ether, in addition to dozens of other currencies, according to Arkham. 

Though the project acquired significant assets in late January, since inception, the value of the holdings is at a loss of 49%.

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